Super El Niño forecast to drive significant US snowfall in winter 2026

Forecasters expect a developing El Niño pattern to strengthen into a Super El Niño by late 2026, with some forecasts indicating that four US states, including California and New York, could see significant snowfall this winter. The outlook follows a punishing start to the year. Between January 23 and January 27, 2026, a large winter storm swept from Northern Mexico through the Southern and Northeastern United States and into Canada, producing deadly ice and snow. The Weather Channel and some news outlets informally named it Winter Storm Fern. The stakes are high because El Niño patterns shape where storms track and how much precipitation falls. According to some forecasts, a strengthening Super El Niño could bring wetter-than-normal conditions to the southern United States, while the Farmers' Almanac has predicted an "old-fashioned" winter of extended cold and snow across much of the country. How these projections play out will determine what millions of Americans face in the months ahead.

Super El Niño forecast to shape winter 2026

Forecasters expect a developing El Niño pattern to strengthen into a Super El Niño by late 2026, a shift that could reshape winter weather across the United States. Some forecasts indicate that four US states, including California and New York, could experience significant snowfall in winter 2026.

The strengthening Pacific pattern is also expected to influence precipitation far beyond those states. According to reports, a Super El Niño could bring wetter-than-normal conditions to the southern United States during the winter season, though that prediction remains a forecast rather than a certainty.

The anticipated intensification late in 2026 places the peak of the event toward the end of the year, meaning its strongest effects on American winter weather may be felt as the season progresses into 2027. For now, forecasters are watching how quickly the pattern develops and how far its influence extends.

Winter Storm Fern's deadly sweep in January 2026

Between January 23 and January 27, 2026, a large winter storm swept across a vast stretch of North America, affecting an area from Northern Mexico through the Southern and Northeastern United States and into Canada. The system produced deadly ice and snow impacts along its path, making it one of the season's most consequential weather events.

The storm was informally dubbed Winter Storm Fern by The Weather Channel, a name picked up by some news outlets in their coverage. Such informal names are not officially assigned by government meteorological agencies but are widely used in media reporting to help the public follow major storms.

Authorities have not released confirmed figures on deaths or damage from the storm, and the full extent of its impact across the affected regions remains unclear.

1. 2025-08-11

   Farmers' Almanac 2025-2026 winter forecast reported

2. 2026-01-23 to 2026-01-27

   Major winter storm ('Winter Storm Fern') impacts Northern Mexico, the Southern and Northeastern US, and Canada

3. Winter 2026 (seasonal forecast)

   Forecasts of significant snowfall in four US states and wetter-than-normal conditions in the southern US

4. Late 2026 (forecast)

   El Niño expected to strengthen into a Super El Niño

5. Winter 2026/27 (seasonal outlook)

   Farmers' Almanac outlook for snow, sleet, and colder-than-average temperatures in parts of the southern US, linked to El Niño

Farmers' Almanac predicts an 'old-fashioned' winter

The Farmers' Almanac has set out its expectations for the 2025-2026 winter season in the United States, in a forecast reported by MSN on August 11, 2025. According to the Almanac, much of the country should brace for what it describes as an "old-fashioned" winter, with an extended stretch of cold and snow across large parts of the US. The Almanac also predicts that winter conditions will arrive earlier than usual this season. For California, its outlook points to wet and stormy weather, bringing rain and mixed precipitation rather than sustained dry spells. The Almanac's seasonal forecasts are a long-running fixture in the US, though their methods differ from those of government and academic meteorologists, and their projections are best read as one voice among several in the seasonal outlook.

What El Niño could mean for the South and Ohio

For the southern United States, the Farmers' Almanac winter 2026/27 outlook calls for snow, sleet, and colder-than-average temperatures in parts of the region, a pattern it attributes to El Niño. The Almanac has not specified which southern areas would be most affected. Some forecasts also suggest a Super El Niño could bring wetter-than-normal conditions to the South during winter 2026, though such seasonal outlooks carry considerable uncertainty.

Further north, the picture may look different. Reports suggest that a strengthening Super El Niño raises the possibility that Ohio could see reduced snowfall this winter. No projection has been given for how large that reduction might be or over what period it would apply. Taken together, these forecasts sketch a season in which the El Niño pattern could redistribute winter weather across the eastern half of the country — wetter and colder in parts of the South, potentially milder in terms of snow around the Great Lakes.

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