El Niño is strengthening — and warnings of the strongest event in 150 years are growing louder

El Niño is strengthening across the tropical Pacific, and warnings are multiplying that the world could face one of the strongest events on record. Chinese media reports suggest the approaching El Niño could be the most powerful in 150 years, though that assessment has not been independently verified. China's National Climate Center forecasts that the probability of a super-strong event is continuing to increase, and experts expect the phenomenon to strengthen further between August and October. El Niño is part of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, a climate pattern driven by shifts in winds and sea surface temperatures over the equatorial Pacific. It arrives at irregular intervals averaging about four years and is notoriously hard to predict. When average sea surface temperatures in parts of the Pacific rise by 2 degrees Celsius or more, the event is classed as a super El Niño — capable of triggering severe flooding, drought and temperature extremes worldwide. The stakes are already visible. Heatwaves are intensifying across multiple regions, reduced rainfall has hurt India's monsoon season, and copper markets are feeling the strain. UN Secretary-General António Guterres warned the strengthening El Niño is adding fuel to a planet already in crisis.

A strengthening El Niño raises fears of a record event

El Niño is intensifying. Roughly two months into the Atlantic hurricane season, the Pacific climate phenomenon is strengthening and approaching record levels, according to recent climate models, which indicate the event is still building.

The most striking assessment comes from Chinese media reports, which suggest the world may be facing the strongest El Niño in 150 years. That figure has not been independently confirmed, and no other source consulted verifies the comparison. China's National Climate Center has said the probability of a super-strong El Niño event is continuing to increase, though it has not quantified that probability or given a likely timeframe.

What is clear is that forecasters expect the phenomenon to strengthen further between August and October. Weather experts have warned that a stronger system is taking hold, threatening India's monsoon and bringing hotter, drier conditions to much of the world.

Notably absent from the available reporting is any firm chronology. No source gives a specific date or year for when the current event began, and none says when it is expected to peak. The warnings rest on observed strengthening and model projections rather than a settled forecast of scale or duration — a gap that reflects how irregular and difficult to predict the phenomenon remains, even as the signals grow louder.

What El Niño is and why it is so hard to predict

El Niño is the warm phase of a global climate phenomenon known as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, or ENSO. It arises from variations in winds and sea surface temperatures over the tropical Pacific Ocean — unusual, non-cyclical changes in ocean currents within the oceanographic-meteorological system of the equatorial Pacific. Though it originates in one stretch of ocean, its reach is far wider: through what scientists call teleconnections, ENSO influences the climate of much of the tropics and subtropics, reshaping rainfall, temperature and storm patterns on multiple continents.

The name comes from "El Niño de Navidad", a reference to the newborn Christ child, because the phenomenon tends to appear around Christmas. It occurs at irregular intervals averaging about four years, and that irregularity is central to why it is so hard to forecast. ENSO variations follow an irregular pattern with only some appearance of cycles, and the phenomenon is not easily predictable.

Within this spectrum, scientists distinguish a class of exceptionally powerful events. Super El Niño events, also called very strong El Niño events, occur when average sea surface temperatures in parts of the Pacific Ocean rise by 2 degrees Celsius or more. These events affect global weather patterns and can bring widespread and severe flooding, drought and unseasonable temperature extremes — with consequences that can extend to crop failures, food shortages and famine.

The 2-degree threshold and what the models are saying

A super El Niño — also called a very strong El Niño event — is defined by a precise benchmark: average sea surface temperatures in parts of the Pacific Ocean rising by 2 degrees Celsius or more. Crossing that line matters because of what tends to follow. Super events can bring widespread and severe flooding, drought and unseasonable temperature extremes, and in the worst cases crop failures, food shortages and famine.

Several forecasting bodies now suggest the current event is moving in that direction, though their assessments carry uncertainty. China's National Climate Center forecasts that the probability of a super-strong El Niño is continuing to increase, without quantifying the odds or the timing. Recent climate models indicate the event is intensifying, and experts expect it to strengthen further between August and October. NOAA, the US weather agency, has forecast that El Niño will strengthen during the coming winter.

The underlying science explains why such projections remain probabilistic. The El Niño–Southern Oscillation arises from variations in winds and sea surface temperatures over the tropical Pacific, and it follows an irregular pattern with only some appearance of cycles. Events arrive at intervals averaging about four years, but the system is not easily predictable — which is why forecasters speak of rising probability rather than certainty, and why the 2-degree threshold serves as the line they are watching most closely.

Heatwaves, a faltering monsoon and rattled copper markets

The effects of the strengthening El Niño are already being felt on multiple fronts. Extreme heat and heatwaves have struck regions around the world in connection with the phenomenon, and People's Daily reports that El Niño is intensifying the frequent heatwaves seen in many countries, with temperatures of 40 degrees Celsius potentially becoming routine. The event is expected to add further heat to what is already an exceptionally hot summer.

In India, the consequences have reached the tourism economy. Reduced rainfall attributed to the El Niño effect in June and July has hurt monsoon tourism in the Malnad region of Karnataka, a part of the Western Ghats that normally draws visitors precisely for its heavy seasonal rains. The shortfall has been compounded by restrictions and closures of some camps imposed by the Forest and Tourism departments, deepening the decline in visitor numbers. Weather experts have separately warned that a stronger El Niño system could put India's monsoon at risk more broadly, bringing hotter, drier conditions to much of the world, though the measured impact on monsoon rainfall beyond the Malnad tourism effects is not yet established.

Commodity markets are also feeling the strain. Extreme weather linked to El Niño is affecting copper markets, according to reports, though the scale of that effect — in price movements, volumes or duration — has not been specified.

Why a strong El Niño could tip global food supplies into crisis

Global food supplies have so far kept functioning despite the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, two conflicts that hit major grain-producing regions. That resilience now faces a further test. A strong weather phenomenon such as El Niño could multiply the risks to global food security and worsen world hunger.

The concern is straightforward. El Niño can deliver widespread and severe flooding, drought and unseasonable temperature extremes across much of the tropics and subtropics. Very strong events — those in which average sea surface temperatures in parts of the Pacific rise by 2 degrees Celsius or more — can result in crop failures, food shortages and famine. A system already strained by war would have less room to absorb such shocks.

No source consulted says food security has already been measurably affected by the current event. The warnings are about risk, not recorded damage. But with weather experts cautioning that a stronger El Niño is taking hold and bringing hotter, drier conditions to much of the world, the margin for error in global food supply is narrowing.

From the UN to Jakarta, governments brace for impact

Governments and international bodies are moving from observation to preparation. UN Secretary-General António Guterres framed the strengthening El Niño in stark terms, saying it was adding fuel to a planet already in crisis and warning that the climate crisis is moving into uncharted territory.

Health officials are also mobilising. The World Health Organization hosted a webinar on preparing for El Niño and climate-related health risks, drawing on global insights and country experiences to help governments anticipate the strain that extreme heat, flooding and drought can place on health systems.

In Africa, the response has reached ministerial level. Leaders at the African Union Commission issued a warning about the approaching event during a Ministerial Consultative Meeting on El Niño Preparedness and Continental Response, according to reports, signalling concern about the continent's exposure to the droughts and floods a strong event can bring.

Indonesia is among the countries taking early action. According to the country's meteorological agency, BMKG, authorities are preparing for a potentially stronger El Niño. The archipelago is historically vulnerable to the drier conditions the phenomenon delivers, which can intensify drought and fire seasons across the region.

What forecasters are watching through the winter

In the near term, forecasters expect the phenomenon to intensify heat during an already punishing summer, with experts anticipating further strengthening between August and October. NOAA has forecast that El Niño will build during the coming winter, and projections extending to the 2026-27 winter season have fed discussion of a prediction by Hansen pointing to 2026 as a pivotal year.

Yet caution is warranted. ENSO variations follow an irregular pattern with only the appearance of cycles, and the phenomenon is not easily predictable. The much-quoted claim of the strongest event in 150 years rests solely on Chinese media reports; no independent assessment has confirmed it.

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