US-Iran war: Washington claims Hormuz deal is near as Tehran hardliners push back

Washington says a deal with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz is close. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the strait could reopen soon, and he and Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced that talks had progressed far enough to allow shipments to resume. Donald Trump said on Monday that a deal was near, while warning that Iran would be hit "very hard" if the waterway was not opened. The strait, the narrow passage between the Persian Gulf and the open ocean, remains closed to shipping despite the reported progress. US Central Command says its southern route stays free and open, and under the emerging agreement ships would enter the Gulf via an Iranian-controlled route. In Tehran, the picture is contested: President Masoud Pezeshkian faces hardline opposition to any settlement, and the Assembly of Experts has called negotiations with the United States futile. The stakes are global. Oil prices fell 2% on the ceasefire optimism, eight of the largest oil companies have booked more than $90 billion in profits over three months, and attacks are continuing even as diplomats talk.

Washington says a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz is close

US officials say negotiations to reopen the Strait of Hormuz have advanced to the point where shipments could soon resume. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced that talks had progressed enough to allow traffic through the waterway to restart, with Bessent indicating a deal was close and the strait could reopen soon. Donald Trump said on Monday that an agreement was near, while warning Iran would be hit "very hard" if the strait was not opened, and describing the talks as a "last chance" for Tehran.

US Central Command said the southern route of the strait remains free and open. Under the emerging arrangement, ships would enter the Persian Gulf via an Iranian-controlled route.

The picture is contested, however. The strait remained closed to shipping despite the reported progress, and US and Iranian accounts diverge: while Washington projects momentum, Iran's Assembly of Experts has called negotiations with the United States futile, and President Masoud Pezeshkian faces hardline opposition to any settlement.

Tehran split as hardliners call talks with Washington futile

Within Iran, the picture is far less optimistic than Washington's. President Masoud Pezeshkian has publicly denied claims that he repeatedly threatened to resign during the Hormuz talks, a sign of how charged the negotiations have become in Tehran. The Assembly of Experts, the clerical body that oversees the supreme leader, has dismissed negotiations with the United States as futile, and Pezeshkian faces open resistance from hardline factions opposed to any settlement with Washington.

That internal split sits uneasily against pressure from the White House. Trump has warned that Iran would be hit very hard if the strait was not opened soon, and he has framed the talks as a "last chance" for Tehran — language that hardliners can seize on as evidence that engagement with the US is pointless.

Oil majors, banks and EV leasing: the war's economic ripple effects

Oil prices fell 2% following optimistic statements about a possible ceasefire and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, even as the waterway remained closed to shipping.

The conflict has proved lucrative for the energy industry. Eight of the largest oil companies earned combined profits of more than $90 billion in three months as the fighting drove energy prices higher, and British newspapers covered the windfall prominently. The war-related profits have prompted renewed calls for the companies to contribute to the costs of environmental damage.

Major UK banks also reported soaring half-year profits, partly fuelled by market turbulence linked to the war. British motorists appear to be adapting: leasing of used electric cars rose 170% over the past year, a shift the report links to drivers seeking to avoid high petrol prices. UK manufacturers, meanwhile, increased output for a fourth consecutive month in July, the fastest pace in almost two years, according to an S&P Global survey — though those surveyed voiced concern about the economic impact of a prolonged Middle East war.

Attacks continue even as ceasefire efforts advance

The diplomacy has not stopped the fighting. Washington is continuing its attacks on Iran, and the United States has deployed fighter jets to the Middle East as the conflict grinds on.

The military balance is straining defences. Russia and Iran are firing ballistic missiles at rates faster than Patriot interceptors can be produced, a problem for the US and its partners, who rely on those interceptors to shoot down incoming missiles.

The conflict has also drawn in outside actors. Ukraine carried out a deadly attack on an Iranian ship in the Caspian Sea, after which threats between the parties escalated.

Despite the reported diplomatic progress, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed to shipping.

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